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A proud member of the reality based commentosphere since 2000. You can find my two Eurocent mainly at liberal and centrist discussion threads, but also at some other surprising places. Also tweeting now, as user "graygoods".

Thursday, September 09, 2010

Bob Creamer ain't wrong, but he ain't right, either.

A blog post by Mike Lux at OpenLeft mentioned this story by Bob Creamer at the HuffPo, where that "political consultant" tries to make a happy face about the Dem chances in the upcoming election. As I see it, it's simply whistling in a storm in a very dark and dangerous forest. It's not that Creamer doesn't produce some nice tunes, it's simply that it's not good enough in the deafening cacophony of alarms sounding at every corner!

Like that effing ole fool Deeds, Creamer essentially argues that the rethugs are even worse. But we already know this campaign strategy doesn't work! If nothing changes, and soon, the election will be decided by right wing nutcases running to the polls and Dems and left leaning independents staying at home. And nothing that Creamer writes gives any hope that this won't happen.

Just look at his lame points: 1) and 2) suffer from still making sense if you exchange "Republican" for "Democrat" in them. Both parties are guilty, and neither one can score in this regard! The problem with 3) is that the Dem party simply doesn't stand for "progressive-Democratic values" nowadays. So, by their own fault, this won't help conservative and centrist Dems in any way, and polls show they are most vulnerable.

The issue with 4) is that voters don't see that much difference between GOP and Dem candidates in many races. The new ombudsman of the NYT, who voted for both Obama and Scott Brown, is a good example of this confused mindset. Also, there is a strong anti-incumbent mood right now, and since the Dems have more incumbents, that works against them.

We can totally forget about 5), there are no facts supporting this prophecy. This simply is wishful thinking. And the same goes for 6), there's no evidence that "Democratic Campaigns will be better organized and in many cases have more resources". No, Dem campaigns suffer from a serious depression among the activists who do most of the laborious footwork, while on the right side, the supporters are on fire because they feel the trend is working for them. Just remember the huge participation, and the impressive show of organisation, at the Beck rally! And don't forget that the rules of the game have changed, the Supremes allowed big money to weigh in on the elections now, and the fat cats will exploit that opportunity big time! This will make it hard for Dems to compete financially.

So, sry, but imho Bob Creamer is delusional. This kind of stomping for the party by downplaying clear and present dangers won't work. Actually, it only makes matters worse when Dem Congressmen are led to believe they can still get away from destruction without decisive actions of their own! But the reality is, without a determined effort at passing hugely popular programs now, at the very last minute, many Dems will be toast in November. And deservedly so.

Bad policies -> enthusiasm gap -> low turnout. Not only political consultants, but everybody should be able to see that this is a recipe for disaster! And if the Dems have nothing better to offer, they will end up with that rotten egg on their faces.

(based on a comment at OpenLeft)

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